Monday, November 20, 2017

The Generous Spirit

[Lori Toye] In 2010 I received a phone call from an I AM America student who had recently started an Ascended Master study group in the Golden City of Malton. Elaine Cardall and I immediately clicked. We both shared a deep love of the Ascended Masters and their teachings, the sacred energies of a Golden City, the solitude and beauty of nature, and the same birthday—although we were born a decade apart. Our monthly calls continued and I revealed study tips and offered casual mentoring. In one of these calls in late 2011, I mentioned that I had at my fingertips a complete archive of information where I could research some of her questions. Elaine was intrigued, “You know . . .” her voice broke and I detected a hint of emotion, even shyness, “I can help you with this material, that is, if you need me.” And she immediately added, “I would like to be of service.”
I excitedly shared with her my vision for the material, that included an introductory series of books based on never before published transcripts that dated back to my beginning days and dozens of transcribed lessons that could be organized into four more books for the Golden City Series, plus a final book describing a form of Kriya Yoga—breathwork—that prepares the human energy system for Ascension. “Can you send all of it to me?” Elaine politely asked after my lengthy explanation. “Of course,” I responded and in the next hour I drove to our local Wal-Mart, purchased a thumb drive, copied all the files, and mailed it to her the next day.
I patiently waited for her call that came about a week later. “It’s absolutely amazing,” she exclaimed as we spoke. She confirmed what I had known for years: “This is a complete body of information from the Ascended Masters . . . but I’m a bit uncertain just where to start.” Undoubtedly these were teachings for a disciplined student—a true chela. And the Earth Changes Prophecies that originally played a central role with the Earth Changes Maps, in reality, only comprised a small amount of the teaching that contained detailed information on Ascension, the role of the Golden Cities, the Seven Rays of Light and Sound, energy fields and the human aura, health and healing, personal growth and transformation, decree and meditation, and literally hundreds of spiritual techniques. The I AM America Archive contained the complete teachings of a mystery school. Now, unquestionably, the task before us was how to properly organize and present this unique information. Read More

Sea Levels Are Already Rising. What's Next?


President Trump has dismissed climate change as a hoax. But scientists project that, within the next 100 years, rising sea levels caused by climate change will submerge much of southeast Florida—including Mar-a-Lago, his beachfront Florida “White House.” And a new category of exiles will be created, says Jeff Goodell in his new book The Water Will Come—climate change refugees. [Seven things to know about climate change.]
When National Geographic caught up with Goodell at his home in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., he explained how water contamination is one of the greatest threats from rising seas; why poor nations are demanding compensation; and how President Trump’s policies are causing people, and states, to push back.

What Governor Scott’s remarks say is how poorly we understand the risks of what we face now and in the future. The idea that areas flooded that we didn’t think could flood suggests we don’t have a very good sense of what the risk is along the coastline, especially in Florida where we’re continuing to build out at an incredible pace.
It also suggests we don’t understand the risks we face in a world where climate change is happening. We know that, as the Earth’s atmosphere heats up, climate change is likely to create bigger and more intense hurricanes, which will push more water up onto the land. Combine that with rising seas—and sea levels are rising faster in southern Florida than anywhere on the planet—you get more flooding. Read More

As Earth's rotation slows down, scientists predict more intense earthquakes

[IBI Times] Geologists have warned that deadly earthquakes could become more frequent in the coming year and that they are likely to be caused by the slowing down of the Earth's rotation.
Scientists, who presented their research to the Geological Society of America recently, have found that variations in the speed of the Earth's rotation could set off intense seismic activity, particularly in the tropical-equatorial regions where over a billion people live.
The slowdown in Earth's rotation is small, measuring in milliseconds, reports the Guardian, but enough to release vast amounts of underground energy. The link between seismic activity and the planet's rotation was brought out in a paper by Roger Bilham of the University of Colorado in Boulder and Rebecca Bendick of the University of Montana in Missoula.
"The correlation between the Earth's rotation and earthquake activity is strong and suggests there is going to be an increase in numbers of intense earthquakes next year," said Bilham.
It is unclear why decreases in the speed of the Earth's rotation should have this effect on the surface, but geological activity deep in the core could possibly be the cause of both slowing down as well as earthquakes. Most of the earthquakes are also likely to happen around the equatorial regions, said Bilham.
Bilham and Bendick, for their research, studied all the major earthquakes that registered a magnitude of 7 and above since 1900. All the major earthquakes that have happened over the last century have been well recorded, said Bilham. Using this data, they identified five periods that registered higher large earthquakes when compared with other periods. "In these periods, there were 25 to 30 intense earthquakes a year," he said. The other periods identified only averaged 15 quakes a year, he added.
Further investigation into these periods of high seismic activity resulted in the identification of a few correlations. They found that soon after periods when the Earth's rotation decreased in speed slightly, there were a large number of intense earthquakes. "The rotation of the Earth does change slightly – by a millisecond a day sometimes – and that can be measured very accurately by atomic clocks," noted Bilham. Read More

Saturday, November 18, 2017

Ominous NASA climate change app shows which cities will flood

[Slashgear] Coastal cities around the world are at risk of severe flooding and even eventual eradication as ocean levels rise. A new simulation from NASA highlights how big this potential problem is, showing what could happen to 293 coastal cities around the world over the next 100 years. Among the observed changes are severe flooding to big locations like New York City and London.

Coastal flooding is already a growing problem in some places, the result of melting ice that causes ocean levels to rise. Researchers have warned for years that rising ocean levels will cause increasingly catastrophic floods in many places around the world, and that decades from now some big regions could be left entirely underwater.
NASA’s new simulation is the most recent to visualize these changes, but it takes things a step further by breaking down which cities will be effected by various sources of melting ice. For example, ice melting from the northeastern half of Greenland will most heavily affect New York City despite some other coastal cities being closer. Another example of catastrophic flooding would be the eradication of Sydney, Australia, by melting Antarctic ice.
Users are able to change various conditions in the simulation, helping cities and planners determine what changes need to be made to help mitigate potential future disasters. The simulation shows potential outcomes as far as 100 years into the future, and may be a useful way for home buyers and others to decide where to purchase property from a long-term standpoint. Read More and Try the Simulation

Photos Show ‘Biblical’ Flooding In Greece Following Severe Storm

[Huffington Post] Flash flooding hit the outskirts of Greece’s capital on Wednesday after a night of severe rainfall. At least 14 people died, according to media reports, and the water left roadways clogged with mud and debris.
The floods largely affected the towns of Mandra, Nea Peramos and Megara, on the western outskirts of Athens. Schools in those suburbs were closed after local authorities declared a state of emergency and urged citizens not to travel to the affected areas.
“This is a biblical disaster,” Yianna Krikouki, the mayor of Mandra, told state broadcaster ERT. “Everything is gone.”
Greece’s prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, posted on Twitter, saying he was “deeply saddened” by the deaths and damage resulting from “the catastrophic storm,” according to a translation by Al Jazeera.
The flooding damaged homes and businesses and destroyed an entire section of the highway that connects Athens and Corinth. The local fire department responded to dozens of reports of people trapped in vehicles and homes, The Associated Press reported. Read More

Friday, November 17, 2017

What If a 9.0-Magnitude Earthquake Hit Seattle?

[Live Science] In preparation for the BIG ONE — the mighty 9.0-magnitude earthquake that's expected to lay waste to the Pacific Northwest — geophysicists have created 50 virtual simulations to see how such a quake could rattle the region.
The simulations don't paint a pretty picture for Seattle or the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon, British Columbia and Northern California, but the locations of some epicenters were a bit more forgiving than others.
"People have done simulations like this in the past, but they only did one or two," said study lead researcher Erin Wirth, who did the project while a postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Earth and Space Sciences at the University of Washington. "In running 50 [simulations], we were trying to show the full range of possibilities by varying all these parameters." [The 10 Biggest Earthquakes in History]
The Pacific Northwest is in earthquake country largely because of the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ), a 620-mile-long (1,000 kilometers) fault stretching from northern Vancouver Island, Canada, to Cape Mendocino, California, according to the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. At the fault line, the offshore Juan de Fuca plate is moving toward, and eventually under, the plate holding the continent of North America. (There are other active faults in the Pacific Northwest, but the CSZ is capable of triggering the strongest earthquakes, according to the Washington State Department of Natural Resources.)
"We know that Cascadia is capable of having large megathrust earthquakes up to about magnitude 9," said Wirth, who is now a research geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). "The last one occurred in the year 1700. Obviously, we didn't have any seismometers to record the shaking then, so we really don't know what it looked like in terms of the intensity of ground shaking." Read More

What female preppers care about the most

[Aleteia] One of the reasons we evacuated before Hurricane Irma was that we weren’t prepared — we didn’t have enough water and couldn’t find any in the store. But that could have been remedied. We could have had frozen bags of water and filled sinks and tubs and containers. We had a pretty decent stockpile of food and propane for the grill and cans of gas and a medical kit. We probably would have been fine.
What we were really lacking was mental preparation. Even though we’ve lived here for 5 years, southwest Florida is still unfamiliar terrain. If we lost power for weeks, I wouldn’t know where to find fresh water or how to keep mold from growing inside the house or even how to fend off mosquitoes without bathing in DEET. In the long list of potential scenarios following a Cat 4 hurricane, I wasn’t prepared for any of them.
Bustle recently interviewed women across the country who are increasingly turning to prepping as insurance against future disaster — natural, financial, or political. The common theme among the women is that prepping isn’t about the stuff, it’s about the knowledge, as Survival Mom Lisa Bedford explained:
“You could spend tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars getting prepared,” Bedford says, “but I think survival doesn’t require all of those kinds of expenditures as much as it requires some agility and nimbleness. We have several months of food on hand, but what if we came home one day and it had been flooded? The most important component of survival is yourself.”
This is something all women know on an instinctive level. We’re usually the ones who do the practical work of running a household, so we know the importance of rolling with the punches. Whether it’s simple changes like swapping ingredients when you run out of something or more complex shifts like adjusting the grocery budget for the month to cover an unexpected medical bill, we know that the health and well-being of our family depends largely on our ability to rise to the occasion — whatever that occasion might be.
So it doesn’t surprise me that when it comes to prepping, women seek the knowledge and skills to survive  an uncertain future more than the tangible supplies that would keep them alive. After all, prepping involves planning for disaster. There’s no way to know when and where that disaster will strike, or what lesser disasters will follow. Pouring limited resources into amassing a survival supply is less likely to help you survive than learning the skills to find, make, grow, cook, and create what you need would be. You can lose things far more easily than you can lose skills and knowledge.
So if you’ve been wanting to prepare for the future but find the task economically daunting, shift your focus. Think less about arming yourself with a year’s worth of supplies and more about arming yourself with knowledge and skills that can help you survive whatever the future holds for you. That kind of prepping will always be valuable, whether or not disaster strikes. Read More

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

The Time is Now: Consciousness Creates Climate

[Lori Toye] In 1992 we published the first version of New World Atlas, Volume One, that would later become Book One of the New World Wisdom Series. Since that time, we have seen many Earth Changes, and gratefully, nothing like what we originally thought could be possible. It is important, however, to remember that while the most extreme changes have yet to occur, that some of the events prophesied and explained by the Spiritual Teachers have transpired and many are occurring now, such as global warming, climate change, and extreme weather. Climate scientists point the finger at trapped heat radiating from our Earth en route to space, held by the long-lived gases of water vapor (clouds and precipitation), carbon dioxide (mostly caused by the burning of fossil fuels), nitrous oxide (caused by certain agricultural practices), and chlorofluorocarbons (gases from refrigerants and aerosols). Some politicians argue that the Earth is experiencing a natural warming trend that may be explained by our Sun’s irradiance—the energy emitted by the Sun. The holistic perspective of the Spiritual Teachers of the I AM America material does not point fingers of blame, but understands the esoteric law of how human consciousness plays a pivotal role in creation, both individually and globally. A distillation of this philosophy affirms that, “Group consciousness creates climate.” From this notion, we can understand that our individual consciousness is not a cause, but rather results in stagnation and destruction of the whole when we choose to do nothing to change our individual movements to affect the dance of group consciousness.
This Co-creative viewpoint, while seemingly simplistic, is not. There are some lightworkers that believe that the Earth Changes probabilities have been entirely transmuted through positive thinking and consciousness shift, and that the prophecies are no longer valid. I wholeheartedly agree that both of these qualities are tremendously helpful, both personally and collectively, however I find this viewpoint naive. First, the length of this period of tremendous change is not carved in stone. According to the Spiritual Teachers, it could be as short as seven years or as long as seven hundred. At times it may seem that this cycle is passive and other times strong and forceful. The mature understanding is that prophecy is likened to a constant, perpetual warning, and that we hone our spiritual development and insight so we are continuously open, awake, astute, and aware during this important Time of Change. In straightforward terms, Earth’s cautionary yellow light is continuously blinking. Read More

NEBULAE - a cosmic meditation

Where Does Consciousness Come From?

[Magzter] When I was small I often entertained the idea that the Moon was alive and observing me. On my way home from school, I enjoyed looking up into the sky, believing that the Moon kept following me to ensure that I arrived safely. This is an example of animism, which is the belief that inanimate objects, such as stones, trees and mountains, are all alive. Jean Piaget, the Swiss pioneer of developmental psychology, collected many examples of child animism, such as bringing home more than one flower at the same time so that they would not feel lonely, and moving stones from paths every now and then so that they would not have to constantly look at the same view. As Piaget observed, animism is commonly present in young children and tends to disappear as they grow up.
A closely related hypothesis to animism is panpsychism. Unlike animism, panpsychism does not necessarily attribute life and full mental activity to
In HG Wells’s short story The Country of the Blind, a mountaineer called Nuñez arrives at a hidden valley that is cut off from the rest of the world. The valley is occupied by a population consisting entirely of blind people. Nuñez tells them that he has the fifth sense called ‘sight’ but no one believes him. After living there for some time he falls in love with a local woman. The elders, however, object to their marriage because Nuñez is obsessed with the ‘non-existent’ fifth sense. His doctor suggests Nuñez’s eyes, which are causing his ‘delusions’, be removed. Is it really impossible, even in principle, for Nuñez to make the people in the country comprehend what it is like to see things?
Wells’s story is reminiscent of a philosophical thought experiment introduced in 1982 by the philosopher Frank Jackson at the Australian National University, which vividly illustrates the mystery of consciousness. Imagine Mary, a brilliant future scientist who has always lived in a black-and-white room. Although she has never been outside her room in her entire life, she has learned everything there is to know about reality by studying physics, chemistry and neuroscience from black-and white textbooks and lectures on a black-and-white television. She knows exactly how the brain works and what kind of neural process takes place in any given situation. Suppose now that Mary leaves her room for the first time in her life and looks at, say, a ripe tomato. It seems reasonable to think that she will say, ‘Wow, this is what it is like to see red!’ She will learn something new. This seems to suggest that some knowledge can only be captured by conscious experience.
The brain is a highly complex system with the capacity to process information, but it is a mere organ, a material substance. There seems nothing more spiritual or supernatural about it than there is about the stomach or the lung. So how could the brain yield conscious experiences that are so dissimilar to processes like digestion and respiration? How could processes in the brain give rise to vivid sensations and raw feelings, such as the shooting pain of a leg cramp or the sublime pleasure one takes from listening to musical masterpieces? It seems difficult, if not impossible, for science to explain it. Read More

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

A Massive Heat Source Was Just Discovered Under Antarctica, Driving Ice Melt And Volcanism

[Forbes] Recent discoveries have revealed just how volcanic Antarctica really is, despite being hidden underneath massive ice sheets. However, up until now, there remained significant debate as to what is causing the unusual amount of volcanic activity under an area covered in ice.
Recent research found the source of magma that is fueling the volcanoes underneath Antarctica. The source, a massive upwelling of mantle magma, also known as a hotspot. This is a similar mechanism that produced the Hawaiian Islands and fuels volcanic and geothermal activity in Yellowstone.
There were two key reasons this discovery was difficult to come by, despite significant research.
  • The first is the difficulty of measuring anything underneath kilometers of ice. Typically geoscientists gain a better understanding of the Earth's inner workings by sending sound waves into the ground and measuring the time and angle at which they return to the surface. Using complex mathematical algorithms, geophysicists are able to reconstruct a three-dimensional picture of the subsurface. However, this was difficult to do when any acoustic signal has to travel through kilometers of chaotic ice, causing significant noise in the subsurface "picture" beneath Antarctica.
  • The second is the counterintuitive nature of having a massive heat source underneath an area that is covered with kilometers of ice. With an average ice sheet thickness of 2.16 km and a maximum thickness of around 4.7 km, it's hard to believe there is a massive heat source similar to the one in Yellowstone sitting beneath the ice. How has the heat source not prevented ice build up?

To tackle these questions the research team used a numerical model to help constrain the heat required to produce the melting we currently measure in Antarctica. While direct measurements underneath Antarctica are difficult and few, there are numerous measurements of meltwater outflow. This allowed the research team to constrain their model.
It is well known that there are rivers and lakes beneath Antarctica that drain meltwater to the ocean. Some lakes are as large as Lake Erie and can rapidly drain into the ocean, causing a sudden sinking of the overlying ice.
The numerical model, using constrained melt rates, were able to predict heat sources underneath Antarctica. The team found that the heat coming from beneath Antarctica is constrained to 150 milliwatts per square meter, with a higher heat rate causing too much melting as compared to what is measured. To compare that with other areas, the average heat flux from the Earth is 40-60 milliwatts per square meter and it reaches an average of 200 milliwatts beneath Yellowstone National Park. Read More

We know where the next big earthquakes will happen — but not when

[Vox] At least 400 people are dead and more than 6,000 injured after a massive earthquake struck near the Iran-Iraq border on Sunday.
The magnitude 7.3 earthquake hit the border region just before 10 pm local time with an epicenter 32 kilometers south of Halabja, Iraq. Tremors were felt in both Baghdad and Tehran. 
NPR’s Jane Arraf reported that many of these casualties occurred in remote mountain villages, as homes built of mud brick toppled and fires were started from kerosene heaters and lamps. Aftershocks triggered mudslides, complicating the relief effort. Iranian officials now say 70,000 people need temporary housing.
The recent earthquakes in Iran and Iraq follow a pair of massive earthquakes in September in Mexico, including the strongest tremor to hit the country in a century. The quakes led to at least 369 deaths.
In light of the recent tremors, and the looming possibility of a big one in the United States, here’s a refresher on earthquakes, along with some of the latest science on measuring and predicting them. 
An earthquake occurs when massive blocks of the earth’s crust suddenly move past each other. These blocks, called tectonic plates, lie on top of the earth’s mantle, a layer that behaves like a very slow-moving liquid over millions of years.
That means tectonic plates jostle each other over time. They can also slide on top of each other, a phenomenon called subduction.
The places on the planet where one plate meets another are the most prone to earthquakes. The specific surfaces where parcels of earth slip past each other are called faults.
As plates move, pressure builds up across their boundaries, while friction holds them in place. When the former overwhelms the latter, the earth shakes as the pent-up energy dissipates.
Scientists understand these kinds of earthquakes — which include those stemming from the San Andreas Fault in California — well.
However, earthquakes can also occur within tectonic plates, as pressure along their edges cause deformations in the middle. These risks are harder to detect and measure.
“Our understanding of these within-plate earthquakes is not as good,” said Stanford University geophysics professor Greg Beroza. “These two earthquakes that happened in Mexico are the latter,” he added, noting that an earthquake within a tectonic plate has fewer telltale signs than those that occur at fault lines. 
The Richter scale, developed by Charles Richter in 1935 to measure quakes in Southern California, is falling out of fashion.
It uses a logarithmic scale, rather than a linear scale, to account for the fact that there is such a huge difference between the tiniest tremors and tower-toppling temblors. On a logarithmic scale, a magnitude 7 earthquake is 10 times more intense than a magnitude 6 and 100 times more intense than a magnitude 5. Read More

Deadliest Earthquakes of Last Decade: More than 400 people were killed and at least 6,00 injured in Iran when a magnitude 7.3 earthquake hit the country. At least six have died in Iraq as well.
Local officials said the death toll of Iran's deadliest earthquake in more than a decade would rise as search and rescue teams reached remote areas to look for dozens of people trapped under rubble in the in the mountainous area. The earthquake, which struck on Sunday, was felt in several western provinces of Iran but the hardest hit was Kermanshah.
Here is a short timeline of some of the world's deadliest major earthquakes in the last 10 years:
September 19, 2017 - MEXICO - A 7.1 magnitude quake hits central Mexico, killing at least 369 people, causing more devastation in the capital than any since the 1985 earthquake that killed thousands.
August 24, 2016 - ITALY - A 6.2 magnitude quake strikes a cluster of mountain communities 140 km east of Rome in central Italy, killing about 300 people.
April 16, 2016 - ECUADOR - A devastating magnitude 7.8 earthquake smashes Ecuador, killing more than 650 people along the country's ravaged Pacific coast. Read More

Monday, November 13, 2017

The Enormous Consequences of America's Catastrophic Weather This Year

[PS Mag] What is happening across the United States is not normal. From coast to coast, this year's weather has been unlike almost anything in history, and, as the year winds down, the data is starting to prove it.
On Wednesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released an update on how U.S. weather is faring this year. The assessment: With record-setting wildfires, drought, floods, and storms, extreme weather this year has been relentless.
Out of 122 years of record-keeping, the first 10 months of 2017 rank as the third warmest such period in the U.S., behind 2012 and 2016. That’s right: The three warmest years ever measured in this country have happened in the past five years.
Dozens of cities are on pace for their warmest year on record, from Tucson, Arizona, to Miami. Only a single city with long-term weather records—Pendleton, Oregon—is on pace for even slightly cooler-than-average temperatures. Every state in the continental U.S. has been unusually warm in 2017.
But warm temperatures aren't the only extreme this year: Several cities across the country—in California, Texas, Florida, New York, and 14 other states—are on pace for their wettest year in history, while parts of North Dakota and Montana will likely have their driest, with less than half as much rainfall as normal. Nationwide, the U.S. Climate Extremes Index—which combines indicators of drought, heavy rain, extreme temperatures, and hurricane impacts, and is maintained by NOAA—places this year as the second most extreme on record, next to 2012.
The toll on people and property from coast to coast has been enormous. Puerto Rico remains in a humanitarian emergency, with millions of people without power and hundreds of thousands without a reliable source of clean water nearly two months after Hurricane Maria made landfall. In California, the worst wildfire season in history burned thousands of homes and prompted a re-think of climate policy.
Initial estimates for just Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria—three of the worst hurricanes to ever strike U.S. soil—put the three storms' total economic toll as high as $400 billion, nearly doubling the bill from 2005, which included Hurricane Katrina. The combined total of physical damage and economic losses from this year's extreme weather could come in at nearly half a trillion dollars.
Officials are still crunching the numbers, but it seems certain that 2017 will be the costliest year for natural disasters in U.S. history. Read More

11 Vegan Thanksgiving 2017 Turkey Alternative Ideas That Aren’t Just Tofurkey

[Bustle] Now that Halloween in behind us it's time to start talking turkey. Orrather, tofurky for all my vegan peeps out there. That's right, Thanksgiving isright around the corner which means, if you're the leading lady in the kitchenlike I am, it's time to start getting your menu options in order.
If you're vegan, you likely already know that coming up with some decent vegan Thanksgiving turkey alternative ideas can be relatively daunting. However it doesn't necessarily have to be. There are options people, even when it doesn’t seem like it. But I will say, the more you plan ahead the better off you’ll be.Preparation is key, especially when it comes to trying something new.
Even if you're not vegan, but you're planning on having someone over who is,it's good to be prepared with something more than a basic quinoa salad and tofu. There's a whole vegan world outside of tofu everyone, I swear! From delicious and gooey vegan pot pies and vegan 'meatballs' to slow cooking some spicy curry and ratatouille, I'm here for you, vegans of the world. So without further ado, check out these 11 killer vegan dishes that will serve as a great alternative to your turkey this year. Read More

Fast and Getting Faster: The Verdict on Sea Level Rise from the Latest National Climate Assessment


[Union of Concerned Scientists] Sea level rose more rapidly during the 20th century than during any of the previous 27 centuries, and humans bear the lion’s share of the responsibility for that rise. That’s just one of the sobering takeaways from the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s Climate Science Special Report (CSSR), released today, but leaked to the New York Times in August. Billed as Volume 1 of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA), the CSSR captures the state of sea level rise science and its implications for the coasts of our country. Here are six noteworthy findings from the sea level rise section of the CSSR:
1. People are responsible for 80% of the sea level rise since 1970
The first key finding in the CSSR’s sea level rise chapter contains a bold statement that is backed up in the chapter’s main text: “Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to [global mean sea level rise] since 1900…contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years…”
This finding is based on eight independent studies published in the last three years that aim to quantify the human contribution to sea level rise since 1900. All of them conclude that the human contribution is “substantial,” and at least two find that, in the absence of human activity, sea level rise over the course of the 20th century would have been about 50 to 60% of what has actually been observed.
The human contribution to sea level rise is even more striking if we look at just the last 50 years: People are responsible for about 80% of the global mean sea level rise since 1970.
These findings broadly reflect the rapid evolution of attribution science–or assessing whether–or what proportion of–observed climate and weather events can be attributed to human activity. A recent study published by Brenda Ekwurzel and others takes this sea level rise attribution one step further by showing that about 30% of global sea level rise since the Industrial Revolution was caused by the burning of products from 90 major fossil fuel companies.
Given the tendency of climate-confused politicians such as Scott Pruitt to say things like “Science tells us that the climate is changing and human activity in some manner impacts that change…the human ability to measure with precision the extent of that impact is subject to continuing debate and dialogue, as well they should be,” this high-confidence finding would ideally help to lift some of their “confusion.”
2. Sea level rise is accelerating, and a growing proportion of that rise is due to loss of ice on land
Estimates of how much sea level rose over the course of the 20th century have been changing, which has implications for our understanding of how the pace of sea level rise has been changing. The average rate that has long been quoted for the 20th century, from a 2011 study by Church and White, is 0.06 inches/year. But a few more recent studies, including one by Hay et al. cited in the CSSR, have found that rate to be slightly lower–0.05 inches per year. That amounts to 4-5 inches of sea level rise in the 89 years between 1901 and 1990.
Since 1990, less than 30 years ago, global sea level has risen by about 3 inches. The rate of sea level rise is now 0.13 inches per year–more than double the 20th century average–with both tide gauges and satellite data confirming the changing pace. Over the course of the 20th century, the pace of sea level rise varied. This recent acceleration is different for at least a few reasons. First, it’s coming on the heels of a century of already above-average sea level rise that we know is attributable to human activity. Second, projections show that this acceleration has only just begun. And third, loss of land-based ice is contributing more to sea level rise than it did during the 20th century. Read More